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Buffettology

What four decades of correspondence from the Oracle of Omaha reveal

标题解读

When future generations want to study today’s capitalists, a good place to start would be Warren Buffett’s annual letters to the shareholders of his firm, Berkshire Hathaway. Unfortunately, any economic insights from the world’s most celebrated investor are woven in with lots of corny jokes about golf and fast food. Mindful that readers may not have the intestinal fortitude tostomach the Oracle of Omaha’s unique sense of humour, The Economist has performed a textual analysis of 40 years’ worth of Buffett’s letters to see what his language reveals about his thinking.

1. 【背景知识】Warren Buffett’s annual letters：沃伦巴菲特致股东的信，巴菲特先生作为投资大师，虽然他自己没有写过什么书，但他每年都要在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的公司年报中给股东写一封信，总结在过去一年中的成败得失。信中所包含的题材广泛，涉猎不仅仅是投资，还有公司战略和管理，当然还有独有的巴式幽默（虽然从后面的corny一次可以看出本文的作者对巴菲特的幽默不太感冒耶）。

2. Woven[ˈwoʊvn]: weave的过去分词形式。If you weave a story, you invent a complicated story. 编排、杜撰复杂的故事。

3. Corny: dull and tiresome but with pretensions of significance or originality.乏味的、过时的。

4. Intestinal : relating to the intestines ( = a long tube through which food travels from the stomach and out of the body while it is being digested ). 肠的、肠壁的。

5. Fortitude: refers to strength in the face of adversity or difficulty. 坚毅、刚毅。与上一个生词Intestinal连起来就是强大的胃。

6. Stomach: endure or accept an obnoxious thing or person. 欣然接受，喜欢和….相处。

7.【背景知识】Oracle of Omaha/ˈɔːr.ə.kəl/: 沃伦巴菲特先生被誉为“奥马哈的先知“，巴菲特出生于奥马哈，被誉为先知是因为他闻名于世界卓越的投资能力。世界上最大的企业级软件公司甲骨文的英文名是Oracle，也是采用了先知之意。

8. Textual analysis：文本挖掘，相当于文本分析，是从文本中获取高质量信息的过程。

本段重点：

引出分析巴菲特致股东信的高频词。

Berkshire has changed a lot. Having grown considerably in size, Mr Buffett now speaks of “businesses”, rather than “business”. He has also taken to using the adjective “huge” (see chart). The letters track how the firm used to focus on buying small stakes in listed companies; it now buys large, established firms outright.

9.【好词佳句】Considerably [kənˈsɪd.ɚ.ə.bəl]：to a great extent. 相当地、非常地。比单纯用much更有文采哟！它的反义词inconsiderably是指微不足道的。

10. Outright[ˈaʊtraɪt]：completely.完全地。

11. Take to doing sth: do something habitually.逐渐习惯做某事。

本段重点：

伯克希尔公司变化巨大：从投资上市公司的小股权到直接收购大型成熟公司。

This shifting strategy has made it tough for outsiders to value Berkshire properly. On the face of it last year was a pretty dismal one for the company. Berkshire’s book value per share rose by just 0.4%, its worst showing since the financial crisis. Earnings were just $4bn, a meagre 1.2% return on equity.

12. On the face of: 表面上看，凭表面现象。

13. Dismal [ˈdɪz.məl]：sad and without hope.忧郁的、阴沉的。

14. 【好词佳句】Meagre [ˈmiː.ɡɚ]: (of amounts or numbers) very small or not enough.贫瘠的，比用little好。

本段重点：

全年伯克希尔的表现不佳，盈利仅为40亿美元，股本回报率低至1.2%。

Mr Buffett contends these figures partly reflect arcane accounting standards which do not cope well with his varied investments. A change in accounting principals forces him to put mark-to-market swings in the value of his $173bn equity portfolio through his earnings, resulting in a $20.6bn loss in 2018. By contrast, the book value of companies Mr Buffett owns outright, an increasing share of his portfolio, are carried at “far below” their current value, making it tough to assess Berkshire’s performance by its annual change in book value. Mr Buffett has moaned about these dynamics a lot. References to America’s Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) have soared.

15. Contend [kənˈtend]：have an argument about something. 争辩、争论。

16. Arcane [ɑ:rˈkeɪn]: requiring secret or mysterious knowledge. 晦涩难懂的。

17. 【背景知识】Mark-to-market（MTM）: 盯市价格。在证券中，每日重新估值一个证券价格以反映其当前的市场价值，而不是其账面价值。盯市价格是在美国次贷危机后才越来越被国际主流投资机构认可的。主要原因在于，次贷危机爆发后，大量以票面价格计价的次贷证券损失惨重，贝尔斯登和雷曼甚至因此破产。因此在2008危机爆发后，MTM就成为国际主流投资机构的资产评估标准了。MTM估值方法比历史成本计价（账面价值计价）要明显更加稳健。后面的swing表示波动。

18. Moan：an utterance expressing pain or disapproval. 抱怨、哀叹。记住后面跟的介词是about。

本段重点：

这一段非常难懂。我用简单直白的语言为大家抛砖引玉：巴菲特吐槽GAAP(美国公认会计准则)，因为这些准则不能很好反映他多样化投资(Varied investment)的表现。一方面在GAAP算法下，将巴老170亿美元股票投资组合的市值波动计入盈利，结果导致产出了206亿美元的亏损。（说实话我是没有看懂这个操作的，为什么把波动计入盈利最后竟然是亏损？欢迎懂行的朋友留言解惑）一方面巴菲特完全拥有的公司的账面价值远低于当前市价，导致单从账面价值看，很难评估伯克希尔的业绩评高。

In other ways, though, Mr Buffett remains consistent. His philosophy has always been to look for cheap companies. He reckons that shares in firms with decent long-term prospects are too pricey at the moment. Instead, Berkshire will focus on buying back its own shares as well as investing in liquid stocks in 2019. Mentions of “repurchases” are on the rise but “acquisition” shows up just three times this year.

19. Reckon[ˈrɛkən]：expect, believe or suppose.估算、判定。Reckon和think的差别在reckon is to count, to number; also, to compute; to calculate。而 think is to ponder, to go over in one"s head or think can be to seem, to appear.

20. Pricey [ˈpraɪsi]：价格高。表示“价格高”最常用的是 expensive，而pricey 是口语化的非正式表达，也是价钱贵的意思。

本段重点：

伯克希尔2019年专注于回购自己的股票以及投资流动性的股票。

Historically, Mr Buffett has been loth to borrow vast sums of money, arguing that “rational people don’t risk what they have and need for what they don’t have and don’t need”. He made an exception in 2013, when he invested in Kraft Heinz. This was one of Mr Buffett’s biggest mistakes. Shares in Kraft Heinz have plummeted. Berkshire has taken a hit of nearly $3bn to its balance-sheet as a consequence. Mentions of “debt” spiked in this year’s letter.

21. Loth [ləʊθ]： strongly opposed. 强烈反对。后面常常跟介词头。

22. Take a hit：受到打击。

本段重点：

巴菲特反对举债投资，但是2013年投资Kraft Heinz破了例，同时也成为重大失误之一。今年的信中，“债券”一词出现的频率飙升。

The biggest question facing investors in Berkshire is who might replace Mr Buffett, now 88, as leader of the company. His partner, Charlie Munger, turned 95 in January. The two most obvious candidates are Ajit Jain, who is 67, and Greg Abel, 56. They were both appointed to Berkshire’s board last year and got 3 mentions each in Mr Buffett’s letter this year. Mr Buffett claims Berkshire’s blood flows in their veins. In years to come their letters might prove this to be the case—if so, Berkshire’s investors are likely to be happy. Especially if they skip the jokes.

23. 【好词佳句】Some organization/company/family’s blood flows in somebody’s vein. 巴菲特称这两位继任者的血管中流动着伯克希尔公司的血液。我们可以活学活用这个句子，例如：MOI’s blood flows in Kate’s vein.

本段重点：

巴菲特继任者是投资者面临的最大问题，67岁的Ajit Jain和56岁的 Greg Abel是显而易见的候选人。

结语

这篇文章通过统计巴菲特致股东信的高频用词来判断伯克希尔2019年的关注重点和战略，高频词涉及回购、债券和继任者等重要议题。本文的视角非常新颖，同时也很有说服力。这种角度可以延伸到生活中，如果能有心统计一下政府公文、公司领导讲话的高频词，大致也能推断近期政府和公司的发展重点。来，小编我来统计一下我们MOI的主编Tony导师的日常，99%都是MOI，真正为MOI鞠躬尽瘁啊！